www.China-Defense.com

"Never attribute to malice, what could be attributed to stupidity." One might exchange stupidity for pride. For nations and their leaders are, more often than not, perfectly capable of rational analysis. They only act like idiots in retrospect, because their, and our, intelligence were clouded by pride.

Back to the subject at hand, here is how I see the events leading up to, and following, a PLA attempt to sink a USN carrier will most likely proceed:

(1) Getting impatient at what they consider Taiwanese intransigence in derisively rebuffing all ML overtures, the CCP leadership decide to rattle some saber in a particularly threatening manner to send a message across - don't be a little brat, start talking.

(2) Tired of strong arm tactics by the CCP (Chinese Communtist Party), fearful that this time it might be the real thing, and determined to display her mettle, Taiwan defiantly takes significant steps toward de jure independence.

(3) Always unconditionally sympathetic to Taiwan, and always assuming the worst of the PRC's motives, the U.S. reminds the PRC, Taiwan and the rest of the world of her obligations.

(4) Humiliated and enraged by Taiwan's insolence and the U.S.' arrogance, frightened by the prospect of reverting to the security environment of the 50s and 60s, the CCP decide to blockade Taiwan to arrest an apparent sprint towards TI.

(5) Infuriated and terrified by the Mainland's aggressive actions, fearing the worse, TW appeals to the world, specifically the U.S., for help. Meanwhile, possible sporadic skirmishes between the PLA and the ROC military occur, escalating to an unknown degree.

(6) Angered and embarrassed by the Mainland's refusal to back down, determined to defend her credibility and standing among allies and others, the U.S. feels compelled to attempt to break the blockade. Convoys under USN escort sail straight at PLAN blockade forces. Several CVBGs are moving into position for area support. Both the PRC and the U.S. make frantic preparations for the worst. Other Asia Pacific nation may or may not decide to stay out of any possible foray.

(7) Domestic opinions on all sides are whipped up to a frenzy, all sides find it impossible to take the most important first step toward de-escalation, all practice brinkmanship, each angrily demanding and desperately hoping the other side will back down.

(8) With so many guns cocked and pointed in such close proximity, a tragic accident takes place, or a rogue soldier disobeys orders. Lives and equipment are lost. Each side believes that he is the victim of despicable treachery, the peoples demand revenge, disguised as justice. Things get out of control.

(9) The PLA, either in attempt to deliver the first severe blow, or in response to a major U.S. blow, decide to sink a USN carrier, the symbol of American power and arrogance. Perhaps also part of the calculation is the desperate hope that the pain of casualties and the sting of a tactical defeat will sour public sentiments and force the U.S. to beat a retreat.

(10) Regardless of whether the PLA's daring strike succeeds, the U.S. gov't, military and the majority of the people are likely of one mind that the PRC should be beaten into the ground until she cries for mercy, as punishment her impudence. Conventional war commences. The PRC and the U.S. step from the precipice in a deadly embrace, with Taiwan crushed in between.

(11a) After exchanging a few damaging blows that resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, the parties come to their senses and sue for peace. Whether the brief confrontation ended with a resounding victory for the U.S. or merely a political tie (which the PRC would take as a moral victory, ala Korean War), people will start to wonder if it could have been avoided, whether the PRC was indeed preparing for a war of 'liberation." Both the Mainland's and Taiwan's economy are severely affected. Fortunately, their and the regional economy are only battered, not shattered.

(11b) The PLAN and PLAAF are annihilated, at the cost of some losses to the USN and USAF, and significant loses to the RoCAF and the RoCN. Tens of thousands are lost in a more protracted conflict, with Asia Pacific economies shattered. Again people wonder if all this could have been avoided.

(11c) The PRC warns that LA might be more valuable to the US than TW, in a desperate attempt to force a negotiated end. The conflict ends in nuclear exchanges, caused by an attempt by the US to "de-fang" the PRC's nuclear teeth, including tactical nukes. The Second Arty strikes US bases and forces with nuclear tipped IRBMs and US cities with ICBMs under the "use 'em or loose 'em" mentality. The US retaliates with countervalue strikes. The lucky ones amongst us are instantly incinerated. As the rest of us teeter on the brink of extinction from cancer, cold, hunger and lawlessness, we wonder were our sared sovereignty, self-determination and credibility worth all this?

In summary, and in much cruder words, the three sides decided to settle their differences by measuring the length and width of their privates. They then came to blows when all refused to believe theirs are less magnificent. In the end, their privates are so damaged that they became impotent. It's the alternative ending to the Cuban Missile Crisis.