Naval Services
The PLAN, The Future Fleet of 2050
The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
The Future Fleet of 2050
by Mrityunjoy Mazumdar and Glenn Levick

So what does the future hold? (3/3)
New submarine capabilities are in the pipeline, although domestic Chinese sub building programmes have been plagued with troubles before, and continue to do so now. If all goes well, the new Type 93 SSN, said to be based on the Russian Victor III design, will become the new backbone of the PLAN's attack submarine force well into the 21st century. In addition, the new Type 94 SSBN should provide a new level of sea based strategic deterrence and capability at the same time, providing its more successful than previous ventures.
Missile developments for both these types and future classes will also improve, with advanced SLBMs and long range land attack SLCMs becoming a nominal capability by 2050. If the Chinese can perfect indigenous design and construction in this field, they may no longer have to buy submarines to fill gaps in the fleet, and if so we could see by 2050 whole new designs appearing with far more advanced domestically built features but still influenced to some degree by the state-of-the-art of the time.
Currently 6 of each of the Type 93 and Type 94 have been projected for service entry by 2015, and so by 2050, a new design to replace both may be in service already, or at least on the drawing board. The PLAN`s SSK force of the far future may consist of a perfected Chinese design of fairly good capability one would expect, and possibly be supplemented by the next generation of Russian SSK. However, if things don't pan out for a domestic design, a far greater proportion of Russian designed submarines could dominate, and if so, given Russian capabilities, the PLAN should maintain a good capability here.
A shift towards a stronger long-range capability in future means further advances in the Nuclear powered submarine arena as well as numbers, whereas currently the PLAN's sub force is dominated by conventional classes, a more balanced fleet may be the reality by 2050, with up to 20 or more SSNs and SSBNs in service, giving them a far greater permanent at sea presence at any given time. Amphibious warfare capabilities if regional ambitions are taken seriously, have to change, and probably will. Developments will likely continue in the near future to improve the ability to mount larger and more effective amphibious operations in line with China's immediate sphere of influence. By 2050, that sphere could be substantially larger, and with that could come the likes of USN style ARGs, centered on an assault carrier class. The use of hovercraft and WIG effect aircraft is also possible. In parallel with such developments, of course must come a much improved at sea replenishment and support. Much larger and more advanced auxiliary classes will be in the pipeline over the next 2 decades if any kind of carrier task group is intended for long-range operations.
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