The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
The Future Fleet of 2050

by Mrityunjoy Mazumdar and Glenn Levick

Evolution in Naval/Military Strategy

Rapid changes in technology and warfighting concepts since the 1980's have led to the so-called RMA in Western militaries. For China, this resulted in a doctrinal shift from a defensive "Peoples war" strategy in the Maoist era to today's "active defence' strategy. The effectiveness of hi-tech, mobile joint force warfighting by the Allied forces in the Gulf War had a major impact on Chinese military thinking, and today, the major goal of the active defence strategy is to fight a 'local war under hi-tech conditions" using highly mobile forces. For the PLAN, which is now recognised as the premier branch of the PLA, this has meant an evolutionary shift from its static coastal defence role (brown-water Navy) to an offensive offshore active defence, whereby it will be used for both tactical and strategic purposes in asserting Chinese influence and in protecting territorial and economic interests, using force if necessary. The offshore active defence strategy is being played out in two phases. Chinese naval strategic planners are aiming to achieve a so-called 'green water' capability by 2002-2010 or sooner - i.e. being able to operate out to the 'first island chain' of Japan, the Senhaku islands, Taiwan and the west coast of Borneo. By 2020, the PLAN hopes to have extended its operational capability further out to the 'second island chain' (Kuriles in the north, the Bonin and Marina islands, and Papua New Guinea to the south. With such plans, one can only assume that they will continue to expand further and 2050 will have reached a true-blue water capability. By then, doctrine could be shifting from an 'active forward defence' to an 'active forward deployment' scenario, with the possibility of one or more foreign shored naval bases becoming a reality, with Myanmar the most likely place for any such base initially. Even if we take into account such blue water ambitions, its is speculative at best to visualise what the PLAN or even China may look like in 50 years time, but with current global trends and developments, as well as obvious PLAN fleet weaknesses and strategy considered we can try and make some educated predictions.

China has long been seeking a great power status and by 2050, China will be THE dominant economic and military power in East Asia if not elsewhere with its influence being felt as far as South Africa. With the gradual draw down of US forces from the Asia-Pacific region, China will try filling the power vacuum, though Japan and Korea will try and contain it in the short term. However, the possible unification of the two Koreas will alter the geopolitical picture fundamentally so by 2050, present day regional alliances allied to the US and other Western interests may well have shifted in favour of China as it pursues regional hegemony. The issue of Taiwan and unification will probably have been resolved by then - either by force or peacefully. Taiwan will either be a part of China or it won't. The outcome will probably hinge on the willingness of the US to militarily intervene in defence of Taiwan. But given Chinese statements about its willingness to engage a "high tech enemy" with missiles and even nuclear weapons when the time is right, it is not difficult to imagine the consequences of a possible nuclear exchange between these two world powers. Taiwan may very well be sacrificial lamb if the China threatens the US economically and the Chinese nuclear deterrence is considered to be a credible threat by the US.