www.China-Defense.com

(The year) 2050 will be a significant year for the PLAN, now recognised as the premier branch of the PLA by the Chinese leadership. That year has officially been cited as the year by when it would have acquired a true blue water force, fully capable of regional maritime power projection in line with China's aim of becoming a global power and challenging the US as the dominant power in the region. In spite of recent, well-publicized acquisitions of advanced warships, submarines and other weapons systems from Russia and elsewhere, the PLAN largely remains a coastal defence force, capable of only a very limited degree of power projection. But before we look ahead into the next 50 years, let us take a brief look into the past 50 years for the sake of continuity. Here Mrityunjoy Mazumdar and Glen Levick draw upon their collective powers of clairvoyance to delve far into the future - to 2050 to see what the future PLAN might be like.

Since its official inception in 1950 the PLAN has gone through some interesting times in its evolution. Always seen as an extension of the massive People's army, the PLAN`s development has been directly influenced, adversely or otherwise, by the changes within China itself over the years. It has gradually evolved from practicing a force comprised of old WW2 gunboats and patrol boats in the immediate post-revolution years to a very large coastal defence 'brown water' force in the sixties and seventies to one that is slowly becoming more balanced and capable of power projection albeit at a very modest level. During the immediate post-revolution years, Soviet influence in the form of advice and technical assistance was prevalent. However during the late 50`s and 60`s, souring relations with its ally the USSR, economic turbulence and other internal troubles saw dark days for the PLA in general. For the PLAN, shipbuilding and operational capabilities were stunted and budget monies strictly limited. But, this also led to a forced drive for self-reliance. The 70`s saw renewed thinking, spurred on by economic revival, opening of relations with the West and conflict with Vietnam. The need to develop a fleet better equipped to protect increasing more vital economic and territorial interests was seen as essential, and with that came the introduction of a variety of new classes of vessels built upon old Soviet designs. Significantly, the commissioning of their first nuclear powered submarine, the Type 91 Han class, and the construction of the first of the Type 92 Xia class SSBN. An "active forward defence" strategy was also implemented and the PLAN was able take its strategic right of place, but poorly equipped and supported ships and submarines still led to it been labelled a "brown water" fleet. In the 80`s along with further economic growth came a massive across the board modernisation plan within the PLA, and subsequently the PLAN was a beneficiary of new developments. Along with improvements in training, gradual upgrades or replacement of older designs, new indigenous weapons were developed, and international assistance from Russia, Ukraine and many Western countries including the United States, was again sought and provided in the development of new projects.

The 90`s has shown the first fruits of this modernization, with the introduction of their first modern surface combatant, the Luhu class guided missile destroyer, albeit still almost a whole generation behind the west in terms of applied technology. Other ambitious domestic projects were offset with a spending spree on Russian platforms, namely Kilo class SSKs and Sovremenny class DDGs.