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After decades of wrong turns with the J8, J9 and J13, the PLAAF may finally get the excuse to get out of the early generation Russian designs that so dominated the PLAAF.

It was meant like the "F-16" for the PLAAF if the Flanker was to be the "F-15". Yet its effect to the PLAAF was like the new T-98 main battle tank was to the PLA. As an indigenous design it will signal that China has arrived to a world class design independent from foreign manufacture, although still dependent on foreign technology. Like the T-98, which looked more like a Western rather than a Russian tank, the J-10 can signal a departure from the Russian style design philosophy towards a more Western approach.

It had been significantly beefed up in the light of the PLAAF's experience with the Flanker, tossing out the classic light air superiority dogfighter/interceptor in favor of the heavier, longer range, multirole fighter. Due to this, it will not be as cheap as it was supposed to. and will be forced to use foreign components such as engines until a domestic engine is tested and available. While the plane appears to be capable, its relative sophistication as a true fourth generation fighter could also limit the pace of its production. As such, building 300 aircraft (based on a reported AL-31FN order) might take as long by the year 2010 to accomplish. Again, this is a far cry from what may be needed to replace retiring craft. Surely the demand is much higher at least, and even more. This is a daunting task, and even fanning out production from Chengdu to Shenyang may not be possible if Shenyang is already deeply involved in the construction of the J-11 or locally built SU-30MKK.

Generally, the best way to offset the higher cost of the craft is to distribute it with high volume amortization. Rationalizing on as few fighter types as possible helps your logistical infrastructure. Ideally, the J-10 should cancel out obsolete fighter and attack types that have become redundant. With production lines threatening closure and therefore unemployment, these production lines can be turned to J-10 production. These would require retraining, equipment and restructuring of factories such as that in Nanchang and Xian.

The biggest question facing this aircraft is the same question facing all the rest of the PLAAF's newest: how to integrate both Chinese and Russian missile systems. A combination of Russian, Israeli and domestic systems have been cited as candidates for the J-10 radar system. Inevitably the goal is to integrate both Russian and Israeli know how into a domestic built radar fire control system. A family of this fire control system would provide a compatibility infrastructure in all of the PLAAF's aircraft, from the mightiest SU's to the lowliest FC-1. The importance of this cannot be under stressed.

1. PLAAF may finally get it right on this one.
2. Major landmark for the Chinese aviation industry, telling the world it has "arrived".
3. First Chinese military airplane to depart from Russian design concepts.

1. It may cost too much or to complicated to build in very large numbers beyond 300 before the end of 2010.
2. Becoming more of a "hi" system than a "lo" system.
3. Israeli concession and Russian equipment may prevent it from being exported to certain countries.