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Flankers Under the Dragon's Wings

A Timeline of Events

by Crobato

 

2003
January 15. Richard Fisher of the Jamestown Foundation made a report from his Zhuhai 2002 experience, confirming the SU-30MK2 and SU-30MK3 for the Chinese Navy. It is presumed that the Chinese Navy intends to arm at least three regiments of SU-30MK2/3, amounting to at least 60 aircraft. Of the sixty, 28 will be SU-30MK2 and 40 might be SU-30MK3. SU-30MK3 will be equipped with Kh-59MK with a targeting range of 300km. At least several dozens of J-11 were said to be completed, but will terminate at either the 80th or 120th aircraft, suggesting a move to a new model. (Some other reports presumed it may be SU-30MKK, others an improved single seater variant (J-11A?) with SD-10 compatibility, multirole and midflight refueling capability that can serve as an interim version either to a fully domestic SU-27 or SU-30MKK license. Earlier reports suggest SU-30MKK license could entail as much as 150-250 aircraft.)
   
2003
January 14. CNN reports China engaging in a massive war game exercise. Since China usually engages in war games in springtime, the timing of this exercise is a surprise. “New fighters” were reported to be training aggressively more than ever before, and this is presumed to be SU-30MKKs.
   
2003
January 15. JDW reports that China is close to a deal in signing a 28 plane contract. This is presumably the 28 planes for the PLANAF. Does it mean that the deal wasn’t signed last August? Or is this a separate new deal?

   
2003
January 26. China signs a 30 aircraft deal according to the Moscow Times. The deal will purchase the SU-30MK2 for the Chinese Navy, enabled to use the Kh-31A supersonic antiship missile. Numbers for this deal differ from 24 to 28 depending on whose report. It is presumed that the Kh-31A is also purchased. As many as six of these supersonic missiles can be carried by one SU-30MKK for a deadly saturation attack.
   
2003
February 10. Sukhoi denies SU-30MKK crash as claimed by Taiwan. (Kanwa).
   
2003
March 10. J-10 inducted into the PLAAF. This plane promises to pose internal rivalry and competition for resources and funding within the PLAAF.
   
2003
March 11. JED reveals SU-30MKK upgrade plans. It reveals that the 20 SU-30MKKs received in 2002 were actually SU-30MK2 for the Navy, and orders received in 2003 will the SU-30MK3 fitted with Zhuk-MSE radar (Zhuk-MS Export or Extended). Article also reveals that China plans to upgrade existing SU-30MKKs to the MK3 standard.
   
2003
April 11-12. CCTV ran an interview with SU-27 and SU-30 pilots, showed the planes as well as what is inside their cockpits. The clip also showed the SU-30MKK launching air to ground missiles.
   
2003
As of May 1, the following formations in the PLAAF are equipped with the SU-27s, J-11s and SU-30s: the 1st Regiment of the 1st Division, based in Anshan; 4th fighter regiment of the 2nd Air Division at ShuiXi; 9th fighter regiment of the 3rd Air Division at Wuhu; a regiment of the 19th Air Division at Zhengzhou; a regiment of the 28th Division at Quzhou; and the 90th fighter regiment of the 33rd Air Division at Chongqing. An unspecified number of planes, including bort 21 to 38 SU-30MKK are at the Flight Test Center at Cangzhou near Beijing. Another formation might be in the process of conversion, this likely to be a regiment in the 29th Division at Quzhou near Nanjing, formerly equipped with J-7Ds. The 14th Division in the Nanjing military region which also acts as a Blue Flag Aggressor force, may also be equipped with a number of SU-27s. A PLA air regiment consists of 20-40 aircraft.
   

 

 

Notes on Press Events:

It must be said that the news coverage on China’s Flanker programs are often muddled and contradictory. Up to now there is actually no Chinese official acknowledgment of the actual numbers purchased from each order. One should be reminded to keep an open mind, as new events or disclosures might reveal truths about China’s Flanker program that may even overturn previous accepted ideas. Sources like Kanwa, Jane’s, Richard Fisher, JED online, Flight International, AFM, Aviation Week, may be fairly reliable but even these are not perfect.

My great thanks to the moderators and people of these websites and forums: China Defense Forum; Chinese Military Forum; Hui Tong’s Chinese Military Aviation website; Dong Feng’s Sinodefence.com; Rick Kramer’s PLAAF orbat site; the Key Mags AFM forums, and the ACIG.org.

 

 

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